Something's up with winning god from vkeys

Discussion in 'General' started by idontknw, Jun 16, 2019.

  1. idontknw

    idontknw Member

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    idontknw
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    I feel like for the number of people who use vote keys, not enough win god. The chance is supposedly a 0.2% chance, or 1/500. However, if you make an equation out of it, you get p = x/(x+500), where x is the number of vote keys and p is the probability of getting god. Graphing this, https://www.desmos.com/calculator/kdqka23jlq shows that the more vote keys you have, the higher your chances. However, you can never quite reach a 100% chance, although you can get super close. The equation x/(x+500) also tells that if you had just 500 vote keys, or 25 mystic keys, you supposedly have a 50% chance of winning. I've heard (and seen) people use something like 200 mystic keys and not win. Obviously there's a chance that this is all a coincidence, but personally I think it either doesn't work or it's a lower chance than it says. The only person I've ever heard of getting god from the crate is Wlyons. If anyone here is good at math and notices anything wrong I did, feel free to correct me. Otherwise, I think this is a pretty big issue, but I'm not putting it in the issues section because it's not exactly a normal bug.
     
  2. Jetpuffed

    Jetpuffed Well-Known Member

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    Jetpuffed
    God
    There's a fatal flaw with your equation. You're basing the chances off the amount of vote keys you have, which simply doesn't work out in this case. The chance is 0.2% per key, or that percentage every one time you open it. It doesn't stack, nor is it collective. The chance should be a straight line at 0.002 (0.2% as a floating point value) all the way through, not gradually ascending.
     
  3. idontknw

    idontknw Member

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    idontknw
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    The curve is not the chance of winning it per key as you go along, that's your total chance of winning it if you use that number of keys. You don't add that to your previous chance, that just is a chance. If you use 500 keys, you should have a 50% chance of winning in total, not a 50% chance of winning for each key after that. In fact, the amount your chance changes actually goes down the more keys you use. Unless, of course, I don't understand how it's supposed to work. I think of it as a coin toss (with lower odds obviously) and if you get heads, for example, you win. In that case, the first time you flip, you have a 50% chance of winning. The second time you flip, you have a total of a 75% chance of winning between the two flips. This pattern continues. It's the same for the keys (I think), just a much lower chance.
     
  4. Jetpuffed

    Jetpuffed Well-Known Member

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    Jetpuffed
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    Your equation would only work if the amount of keys you possessed had a direct corelation with the outcome, which would be the item given to you when you redeem the key... and of course, it doesn't.
     
  5. Jetpuffed

    Jetpuffed Well-Known Member

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    Jetpuffed
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    I'll actually put this into perspective for you, by using your equation.

    Your equation would work best for, say, a lottery. Now usually, there's a limited amount of lottery tickets, or a restricted range. Let's use a range of 1 to 1,000,000. If you bought one lottery ticket, your chance of winning is 1:1,000,000, or 0.0001%. If you bought another ticket, your chances increase to 2:1,000,000, or 0.0002%. In this scenario, the amount of tickets you have directly affects your chances of winning.

    Now let's use our crate system. We don't have a limited number of vote keys, as more are always being generated from voting. This means our range is infinite. Because the range is infinite, it's impossible for the amount of keys you have to directly affect your chances of winning.
     
  6. idontknw

    idontknw Member

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    idontknw
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    Yes, I understand that. That's why it's impossible to never have a 100% chance of winning. If you look on the graph, it gets super close, but never actually reaches the 100% mark. If this was like a lottery, the equation wouldn't be x/(x+500), it would just be x/500. In the case of the keys, it's like having a lottery for every key you have. You have a 1 in 500 chance of winning each lottery. Obviously even if you play thousands of these separate lotteries at the same time, you still have a tiny chance of not winning. However, the more of these "lotteries" you play, the higher your chance of winning is. It increases every time, it just never reaches 100%.
     
  7. Jetpuffed

    Jetpuffed Well-Known Member

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    Jetpuffed
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    I just explained why it doesn't increase. It's a 0.2% chance every time you open it, nothing more or less. The more you play does not directly affect or guarantee chances of winning. I have a feeling you're wording it incorrectly. I think what you're trying to say is the more keys you have, the more times you're able to play, and the more times you're able to play gives you more opportunities to win. The way you're wording it suggests that the more you play increases your chances of winning, which just simply isn't true.
     
  8. idontknw

    idontknw Member

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    Yeah that's pretty much what I'm saying. Also what I'm saying is that your total chances of winning, not your chances of winning each time you play, can be determined by using the equation p = x/(x+500), and for that equation I don't think I see enough people getting god.
     
  9. Jetpuffed

    Jetpuffed Well-Known Member

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    Jetpuffed
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    And I explained this above.

    p = x/(x+500) This equation, the one right next to this wall of text, only works within a restricted range. This does not work within a range from zero to infinity, because infinity never ends. It cannot be applied to our system.

    There's no equation that works to see the outcomes. That's just how RNG works on a range such as ours.
     
  10. idontknw

    idontknw Member

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    idontknw
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    The equation doesn't see the outcomes, it just tells you your CHANCES of winning god if you open a vote crate x times. And it doesn't have a restricted range, since even if x was infinity, p would be less than 100%
     
  11. Jetpuffed

    Jetpuffed Well-Known Member

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    Jetpuffed
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    I've already explained why your equation cannot be applied to to our crate system. Your equation will only work if the amount of keys you possessed or used affects the chances of obtaining the item. There's honestly no other way for me to explain it, because you're just simply not getting it or you just can't understand it, or are refusing to accept it for whatever reason.

    If what's bolded isn't what you're saying, then this is: the more keys you have, the more times you're able to play, and the more times you're able to play gives you more opportunities to win.

    This is completely different than how you've worded it, and is much more accurate to how crates work.
     
  12. idontknw

    idontknw Member

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    Yes, and more opportunities to win means a higher chance of actually winning. All I'm saying is that my equation shows what your chances are of winning based off of the number of times you play.
     
  13. Jetpuffed

    Jetpuffed Well-Known Member

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    Jetpuffed
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    The only thing I can see is your equation is theoretical, it doesn't reflect real world outcomes.
     
  14. MVKay52

    MVKay52 Well-Known Member

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    ImMk
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    It’s an 140 dollar rank.

    You get 50 keys everyday if you vote with an alt.

    It doesn’t matter what the equation is, they aren’t going to give god to anyone who waits 10 days to open 25 mystics at once.
     
  15. idontknw

    idontknw Member

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    First of all, it doesn't have to be all at once for it to work lol. Second of all, if the chance isn't actually 0.2%, then they should put the actual number there.
     
  16. Minionator03

    Minionator03 Active Member

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    Minionator05
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    The chance of god rank changes from gamemodes though because they're are more items to win in some of the vote crate keys
     
  17. Minionator03

    Minionator03 Active Member

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    Minionator05
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    Also i agree with idontknw on you should put the actual chance in because .2% isnt the actual chance because the percents add up over 100
     
  18. BorderPlayz

    BorderPlayz Banned

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    bordrr
    God
    It’s literally random chances. @Dreamwreath_ won God Rank on his alt with only opening a few keys for a few days.
     
  19. Vindigo

    Vindigo Mod

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    Vindigo
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    Jet explained this pretty well but to put it simply due to the unrestricted range x=1
    and because of the infinite amount of keys and the fact that the keys do not eliminate any items for the vote crate once you got them, x will always be equal to 1. Thus the probability does not increase with the amount of keys you have, even if it seems like it should. Statistically you are still left with p= x/(x+500) and x=1 thus p=1/(1+500).
    Probability is always 1/500
     
  20. Meddi

    Meddi Builder

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    Meddi
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    yes
     
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